WEEKLY HLOC SWING OUTLOOK — Feb 8 → Feb 13, 2026
It All Begins Here
A) Macro Regime + Major Zones (W1 read)
USD complex (DOLLAR / USDCHF / USDCAD): broadly soft-to-bearish structure; several markets are pressing into support, so continuation or base-bounce is possible depending on D1/H4 behavior.
Risk FX (EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD): bullish swing attempts remain intact, but multiple pairs are pushing into weekly resistance → higher probability of sweeps/fakeouts before follow-through.
JPY pairs (EURJPY, USDJPY): trend remains bullish; both sit near upper-range / resistance, so continuation is possible but “pullback-first” risk is elevated.
Gold (XAUUSD): strong bullish extension; treat as momentum-biased but stretched into supply.
B) Weekly HLOC Scenario Dashboard (probabilistic)
Likely “Weekly High first” candidates (if trend holds): EURJPY, USDJPY, XAUUSD
Likely “Weekly Low probe” candidates (if weakness continues): DOLLAR, USDCHF
Most two-sided / mean-revert risk: USDCAD, NZDUSD (zone-to-zone behavior)
C) Market Cards (W1-Based)
DOLLAR (W1)
MN1/W1 Trend: bearish-to-range (heavy sell leg → basing)
D1 Structure: not provided
EMA Context (36/100/200): below 36 & 100; 200 above/flat → weak/bear tilt
Key S/R: resistance = EMA cluster/prior breakdown; support = recent base/low zone
Location: at support / lower range
Setup Type: None (potential Break-and-Retest only if fresh breakdown confirms)
H4 Confirmation: none shown
Signal Count (0–5): 2/5
CALL: WATCH (support decision point; two-sided risk)
F) Fundamental Notes (Layman’s Translation)
US yields/rate expectations: firmer expectations often lift USD; easing expectations can weigh → at support, either bounce risk or breakdown continuation.
Risk sentiment: risk-off often supports USD; risk-on can soften → if risk-on persists, pressure may continue.
Relative growth narrative: stronger US story can support USD → if the story fades, support may fail.
Tailwind: hawkish repricing / risk-off
Headwind: easing expectations / risk-on
Event-risk: Not checked
EURUSD (W1)
MN1/W1 Trend: bullish swing; consolidating near highs
D1 Structure: not provided
EMA Context: above rising 36; above 100/200 → bull context
Key S/R: resistance = prior weekly high/supply; support = 36 zone / breakout base
Location: at resistance
Setup Type: Sweep → Reclaim (preferred at highs) OR Break-and-Retest (if acceptance above)
H4 Confirmation: none shown
Signal Count: 2/5
CALL: WATCH (needs acceptance/confirmation at resistance)
F) Fundamental Notes
ECB vs Fed expectations: a softer USD vs EUR backdrop can support EURUSD → at resistance, needs confirmation to avoid bull trap.
Broad USD direction: USD bounce can drive pullback → aligns with rejection risk at highs.
Risk tone: risk-on supports EUR; risk-off supports USD → chop common at weekly highs.
Tailwind: softer USD / steadier ECB
Headwind: USD bounce / growth scare
Event-risk: Not checked
GBPUSD (W1)
MN1/W1 Trend: bullish grind; testing highs
D1 Structure: not provided
EMA Context: above rising 36; above 100/200 → bull
Key S/R: resistance = weekly highs; support = 36 zone / demand shelf
Location: at resistance
Setup Type: Sweep → Reclaim OR Break-and-Retest
H4 Confirmation: none shown
Signal Count: 2/5
CALL: WATCH
F) Fundamental Notes
BoE expectations: supportive tone can underpin GBP → still needs structure proof at resistance.
USD leg: USD can dominate cable swings → USD bounce increases rejection odds.
UK growth/inflation narrative: strength helps continuation only if structure confirms.
Tailwind: supportive UK repricing / softer USD
Headwind: USD bounce / UK slowdown narrative
Event-risk: Not checked
NZDUSD (W1)
MN1/W1 Trend: reversal attempt; strong push into overhead structure
D1 Structure: not provided
EMA Context: mixed (shorter EMAs improving; longer-term overhead remains)
Key S/R: resistance = overhead supply/EMA zone; support = reversal base
Location: into resistance
Setup Type: Break-and-Retest only if clear acceptance above; otherwise None
H4 Confirmation: none shown
Signal Count: 1/5
CALL: NO TRADE / WATCH (mixed + into resistance)
F) Fundamental Notes
Risk tone: NZD tends to benefit from risk-on → could support breakout attempts.
RBNZ expectations: supportive pricing can help NZD → needs structure follow-through.
USD direction: USD bounce can cap rallies → aligns with rejection risk here.
Tailwind: risk-on + supportive RBNZ expectations
Headwind: USD bounce / risk-off
Event-risk: Not checked
AUDUSD (W1)
MN1/W1 Trend: bullish breakout attempt; strong expansion candle
D1 Structure: not provided
EMA Context: reclaim above shorter EMAs; testing major long-term area
Key S/R: resistance = upper weekly supply; support = breakout base / 36 zone
Location: at/near resistance after breakout
Setup Type: Break-and-Retest (best: acceptance → retest hold)
H4 Confirmation: none shown
Signal Count: 2/5
CALL: WATCH (breakout weeks can fake without confirmation)
F) Fundamental Notes
China/growth sensitivity: supportive tone can help AUD → strengthens continuation odds if confirmed.
Commodities terms-of-trade: firm commodities can support AUD → tailwind, but structure must confirm.
USD direction: USD bounce can stall AUD → increases rejection risk at resistance.
Tailwind: risk-on + supportive growth/commodities tone
Headwind: USD bounce / risk-off
Event-risk: Not checked
EURJPY (W1)
MN1/W1 Trend: strong bullish continuation
D1 Structure: not provided
EMA Context: clean bull stack (price above rising 36/100/200)
Key S/R: resistance = current high/supply; support = 36 zone / breakout base
Location: at highs
Setup Type: Trend Pullback → Continuation (preferred) OR Break-and-Retest
H4 Confirmation: none shown
Signal Count: 3/5
CALL: WATCH → Conditional only if pullback holds + H4 confirms
F) Fundamental Notes
Rate differential: typically supports EURJPY when wide → helps continuation if not crowded.
Risk tone: risk-on tends to weaken JPY → supports trend; risk-off is reversal catalyst.
BoJ expectations: any hawkish shift can strengthen JPY → increases pullback risk at highs.
Tailwind: risk-on + steady BoJ stance
Headwind: risk-off shock / BoJ hawkish repricing
Event-risk: Not checked
USDCAD (W1)
MN1/W1 Trend: range-to-mild bearish rotation
D1 Structure: not provided
EMA Context: below 36; near 100/200 region → mixed at support
Key S/R: support = 200 zone/base; resistance = 36 zone/supply
Location: at support
Setup Type: Sweep → Reclaim (if wick below then reclaim) OR None
H4 Confirmation: none shown
Signal Count: 2/5
CALL: WATCH (support decision)
F) Fundamental Notes
Oil linkage: firmer oil tends to support CAD → can pressure USDCAD lower.
BoC vs Fed pricing: shifting expectations can swing direction → determines bounce vs breakdown.
Risk tone: can influence USD and CAD differently → increases two-sided volatility.
Tailwind: USD strength / softer oil
Headwind: stronger oil / CAD strength
Event-risk: Not checked
USDCHF (W1)
MN1/W1 Trend: bearish grind (lower highs)
D1 Structure: not provided
EMA Context: below 36/100/200 → bear
Key S/R: support = current base/low zone; resistance = 36 zone/prior breakdown
Location: at support
Setup Type: Break-and-Retest (if breaks lower) OR Sweep → Reclaim (if false-break)
H4 Confirmation: none shown
Signal Count: 2/5
CALL: WATCH
F) Fundamental Notes
Safe-haven CHF: risk-off can strengthen CHF → supports downside continuation.
USD direction: USD bounce can pause decline → supports mean-revert risk at support.
SNB stance: any CHF-softening narrative can lift USDCHF → bounce risk.
Tailwind: risk-off / CHF bid
Headwind: USD bounce / CHF softening
Event-risk: Not checked
USDJPY (W1)
MN1/W1 Trend: bullish rotation toward highs
D1 Structure: not provided
EMA Context: above rising 36; 100 supportive → bull
Key S/R: resistance = recent swing high; support = 36 zone / base
Location: near resistance
Setup Type: Trend Pullback → Continuation OR Break-and-Retest (if acceptance above highs)
H4 Confirmation: none shown
Signal Count: 3/5
CALL: WATCH
F) Fundamental Notes
US yields: rising yields often support USDJPY → continuation risk if yields stay firm.
Risk tone: risk-off can strengthen JPY → pullback risk near resistance.
BoJ expectations: hawkish repricing can trigger sharp reversals → watch for sweeps at highs.
Tailwind: higher yields / risk-on
Headwind: risk-off / BoJ hawkish repricing
Event-risk: Not checked
XAUUSD (W1)
MN1/W1 Trend: strong bullish trend / extended
D1 Structure: not provided
EMA Context: far above rising 36/100/200 → strong bull but stretched
Key S/R: resistance = upper supply/wick zone; support = breakout shelves / 36 zone
Location: at resistance / extended
Setup Type: Trend Pullback → Continuation (preferred) OR Sweep → Reclaim at extremes
H4 Confirmation: none shown
Signal Count: 3/5
CALL: WATCH (best treated as pullback-first unless acceptance confirms)
F) Fundamental Notes
Real yields: rising real yields often pressure gold → pullback risk from highs.
USD direction: USD bounce can cap gold → aligns with retracement scenario.
Risk tone: risk-off can support gold → extension can persist if fear bid remains.
Tailwind: falling yields / USD soft / risk-off
Headwind: rising yields / USD bounce
Event-risk: Not checked
D) Qualifying Watchlist (max 6)
EURJPY
USDJPY
AUDUSD
EURUSD
XAUUSD
USDCHF
E) Top 3 Setups to Stalk (only)
Break-and-Retest: AUDUSD / EURUSD (acceptance → retest hold → follow-through)
Liquidity Sweep → Reclaim: EURUSD / GBPUSD / XAUUSD (wick beyond extreme → reclaim on closes)
Trend Pullback → Continuation: EURJPY / USDJPY (pullback into trend support → continuation structure)
Next Step (to upgrade WATCH → CONDITIONAL)
Share D1 + H4 for your top 2–3 symbols (or tell me which three), and I’ll score each 0–5 and identify what specifically would count as H4 confirmation vs invalidation structure.
Footer: analysis is informational and not individualized trading advice.